Seven from around the bend

I'm sorry, but I can't let a festive season approach without making a few predictions. It's all that pausing for thought we do at this time of year (that and the fact I'm often asked to do some long range forecasting for company strategists in December!).

Worth trusting? That's up to you to judge.

So here's a few. Not to be taken to seriously - more to provoke you into a making a few of your own - crowd-sourcing the future if you like. (Image courtesy)


Of course, you can always back your thoughts with something like hubdub (in fact, I just might).

1. Broadband providers will start trying to differentiate themselves by upload speeds.
Inspired by a lunch with JP Rangaswami. It's a pet gripe of his that the internet is built all wrong at the point of use - ie it's a medium for participation yet our download speeds are often 10 times or more faster than our upload speed. So, as we get increasingly creative, and (at least the advertised) download speeds get faster and faster, the key differentiator for ISPs won't be a free laptop or 24mb, it'll be how fast I can upload and share my video collection. Watch for the shift this year.

It's an end to placing value in the ability to broadcast and a start to valueing the network.
2. Expect the same rules to apply for mobile devices. I want my iPhone to upload as fast via 3G and wifi as it can download (actually I want the 3G way faster up and down!!).

3. A daily national newspaper will stop printing (finally). In the UK. The shift to network plus the deepening recession will do for at least one. It'll attempt to live on online.

4. A large broadcast media (print, radio or TV) company will go bust (not be sold, cos no one is buying). Btw, it won't be bauer media.

5. There will be a social media backlash.
I do think 2009 is the year a realisation will dawn that social media is less a cause and more a symptom of a changed world.

Having said that, getting a 'social media strategy' is not only fashionable, it IS all important in taking a business, brand or organisation on its journey to the networked world.

And there aren't enough people who genuinely understand this seeming chaos to go around.

With so many bandwagon jumpers coming into the field, many a customer will get their fingers burned. Quick tip, avoid those who try to sell you exploitation of social media rather than participation in it.

The good guys will have some damage to repair.

6. Twitter will monetize in a ham-fisted way. Aggrieved participants will form an open-source co-operative version with funding based on the wikipedia model.

7. Microbanking will get Government backing in a response to growing loan-sharking in the worst hit parts of the economy. (kiva.org for the uk?)

That's enough from me. What do you think 2009 has in store for us?

Changing perceptions about the mobile society

This man's writing changed my life. Now he's turned his attention to changing Microsoft's perception of mobile in The Glittering Allure of the Mobile Society.

Give him half an hour and he'll change yours.

Download the white paper now.

Alan Moore is one of the key inspirations behind my book The Power of the Network, and, I'm proud to say, a very good friend.

Image courtesy

Related articles by Zemanta

• The glittering allure of the mobile society

Cool is in your interactions, not in the phone you carry

An interesting battle is emerging in the mobile world. The G1 google phone was announced yesterday. The iPhone we already have. Touch screen, app-laden rivals are popping up left right and centre.

The first battle was about coolness of device. The iPhone is winning that hands down. The G1 looks less sex on a stick and more sack of spuds. And everyone else's efforts at out appling apple mean look-a-likes.

But the hardware may be a smaller influence on the outcome than many imagine. (image by ceekay via flickr)

Yes, I get that our phones are personal, always with us, an expression of self. Well, I get that they always were. But as they become more and more a true expression of ubiquitous computing, some of those computing requirements look like gaining the upper hand.

Your Mactop may be prettier than my pc but, what if no-one will buy it because you can't attach a web cam? (You can, I know... but you take the point?)
The iTunes store doesn't allow any apps which use the iPhone's camera... you have to jailbreak to be able to use qik etc

Is that wise?

There has to be good-enough software available for macs in order for apple to sell its computers. And there is. But in the computer world it's clear pcs have won on a global scale. They've won on price and because software for one runs on all (pretty much). More developers therefore create for the pc than the mac.

Simply, the pc can do more things because more people develop more things for it to do.

That's the route google is taking with the G1. Android is more open than the iPhone.
(But it ain't that open. An open phone wouldn't be locked to a network. An open phone would allow me to put any sim I like in. What gives here google?)

Anyway, what I mean to say is the battle for dominance in mobile will not be about who has the coolest handset, but it may be about who has the most effective way for developers to monetise their efforts - because that is the route to making your hardware do more.

And the closer your phone gets to being your primary point of entry to the internet, the further the hardware gets from being an expression of self. That's because the greater part of the expression of self will be happening digitally when you make your entry to the internet (ie you manage your reputation through each interaction on social network after social network.)

Cool is who you are in each interaction, not what phone you carry.

G1 Google phone specs leaked. Watch announcement live today.

The tech specs of T-mobile's google phone, the G1, have been leaked ahead of official announcements. And the spec has caused a collective... so what?

You can watch the official launch live from New York at 10.30 EDT here.

According to Tech Ticker among many sources; the Android-powered device includes:

• One touch access to: Search, Maps, Gmail, Youtube, Calendar, and Google Talk
  (Gmail account and data plan required)
• GPS
• 3.1 mp camera,
• no video recording
• No stereo bluetooth (A2DP)
• Dimensions: 4.6 x 2.16 x 0.63 in
  
• Weighs 5.6 ounces (~160 grams)
• 480×320 65K color screen
• 5 hour talk time, 130 hour standby time
• Expandable up to 8GB

We'll soon see exactly how serious google is about the mobile internet - and its expectations that more revenues will come from mobile advertising than fixed line within a few short years.

Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media: Download and share

I'm off for a little R&R. So I thought I'd leave you something chunky to download, read and digest while I'm gone.
 Tomi Ahonen (of Communities Dominate Brands) is about to publish his sixth book - Mobile As Seventh of the Mass Media.
Regular readers of this blog will know we're fans of the concept (originally worked up by Tomi and his co-author on CDB, Alan Moore).
Jonathan Macdonald and I are now pushing the idea into what the Eighth Mass Media can become.

But right now you can download a free 30-page excerpt of Mobile As Seventh of the Mass Media in advance of publication. And, should it tempt you to buy (it will, particularly if the mobile space and digital convergence fascinate you) you can pre-order here.

Tomi says: "Here is the pdf file of the book, Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media. It includes the Foreword by Pekka Ala-Pietila (CEO of Blyk and past president Nokia), the Introduction Chapter, one of the case studies (Flirtomatic) and the fourth chapter, Mobile as 7th Mass Media, as well as the index of the 18 chapters and 16 case studies.

You may freely quote from this document, and you may freely forward it. I am shortly going to launch a blogsite for the book as well, so there will be a place to collect the feedback, news and developments in the 7th Media space. If you blog about the book, I would appreciate it if you could include a mention of the futuretext.com website where potential buyers can already order the book today, before it appears on Amazon in a couple of weeks.

So that's the deal. Enjoy. (Image by Norma1 via flickr)


Pleased to say I'm co-hosting a two-day course at Oxford University on the subject (Mobile As The 7th Mass Media)  with Tomi this winter. Check here for dates when confirmed.

And I'll be presenting on The Eighth Mass Media at WidgetWeb Expo in London in October (6-7) and at Mobile Content (also in London) in November. Tomi and Jonathan Macdonald are also on the bill of the latter. Unmissable really ;-)

Now, where's that suntan lotion...

Apple and the myth of working beautifully part 5...

You may well be as bored as I am by now of my trials and tribulations of iPhone 3G ownership. But anyone who thinks the flakiness of my particular device is a rarity should try to get some time with a Genius (I kid you not) in an Apple shop right now...

(For the record, as of this very moment I can't connect to the internet via my phone once again... a network reset will likely resolve it, but Jeez!!!)

On Sunday I went to the Apple store in Cambridge (having previously been informed at an 02 store that effectively Apple wants to control the customer service. I had to go see a Genius. That's a techy to you and I. The fact that Apple thinks it takes a Genius to solve its user experience issues perhaps tells its own story...

Anyway. Turned out I had to make an appointment. I had to make an appointment to get 10 minutes with a Genius. No slots available today. You can book up to three days in advance. Ooops, all the slots up to three days in advance (that I can get to, at least) are taken.

And in the meantime no one in the store can tell me even whether the issues I am having with my iPhone are isolated or part of a iPhone 3G meltdown (the fact you can't get to see a Genius may guide you to your own take on that...)

C'mon Steve Jobs. It's time for some Lean-Too Marketing to seep into your organisation.

I am getting quite angry with apple's reticence and arrogance when it comes to keeping anyone informed. I want to know if the issues I face with my iPhone are being addressed. I want to know what each of the firmware updates I have tried are striving to achieve (2.01 and 2.02).

I want to know if my phone is a dud that needs replacing, or if its par for the course and being sorted by the next firmware update.

And when I complained of all this to a member of staff they whispered quietly to me that I should try working for Apple - the lack of information is endemic.

In short Apple: I want dialogue. And, by the way, so do your staff...

The rest of this sorry story:

Apple & The Myth of Working Beautifully Part I
Apple & The Myth of Working Beautifully Part II
Apple & The Myth of Working Beautifully Part III
Apple & The Myth of Working Beautifully Part IV

Apple & The Myth of Working Beautifully: Part IV

I really hope this is the fourth and final part of a series I never planned to begin...
I have finally achieved sync up between google contacts and my 3G iPhone.

The (not wholly satisfactory*, but I'll live with it) solution to this problem reveals the core issue with the itunes/iphone experience currently for me.

I don't mind things going wrong. I get that we're living a life in beta. I am a fan of unfinished symphonies after all.

What I would like is a bit of a steer. Experimentation, playfulness, building as we go, is all fun if we can learn from our mistakes. But apple's error messages are not helping us learn. In fact, they are misleading. Read frustrating.

Every time I tried to sync my gmail contacts via itunes I got the message that my google password was incorrect. I was damn sure it wasn't. Some kind folk I know suggested I reset my password and retry. Nowt. Most people simply couldn't understand what could possibly be wrong. Many nodded, smiled knowingly and muttered N95 ( a clearly better visual content creator compared to the iPhone's superior visual content consumption).

When I gave it a final role of the dice last night at home itunes wouldn't open on my pc. Complete freeze up and worrying beeping noises.

When I restarted I tried to repair itunes. It said it had succeeded. It had not (those misleading error messages again).

So I uninstalled itunes, restarted (again) and reinstalled. And this time, this time! It worked. gmail synced up contacts. I even took the opportunity to whack a load of pics into the 16GB void.

The error was not that I didn't know my google password. It was that apple didn't know itunes was phucked.

Finally; 3G is working, itunes is working, syncing is working. At last my iPhone world is beginnning to smell of roses.

And it could have done so much faster and more easily if only apple's error messages were anywhere close to accurate. C'mon apple. Give us a clue!

The rest of the story? 

• 1. Apple & The Myth of Working Beautifully.
• 2. Apple & The Myth of Working Beautifully II.
• 3. Apple & The Myth of Working Beautifully III
  

*Not wholly satisfactory? Well, all my gmail contacts (which I synced from my N73 via Nokia PC Suite) are now in my iPhone... but every field bar the name has been aggregated into the iPhone contacts 'Notes' field. So I have email addresses, phone numbers et al - but I'd have to dial each number or type each email address to use it. Better than nowt... just.

FasterFuture now available for iPhone

FasterFuture has long been mobilised: most notably via mippin.

Now there's a version for the iPhone, created on Mofuse.
You'll find it at: http://fasterfuture.mofuse.mobi/iphone/

It'll look a little something like this:

Mobile operators. Take a seat before you read this

The VRM project had a bit of a bash this week.
The key learnings from it are brilliantly summed up by Chris Carfi at the Social Customer Manifesto in The Principles of VRM

Among the implications of these Doc Searls pointed out is:
"A free customer is more valuable than a captive one".

What's your relationship like with your customer? Do you like to think in terms of capture, lock-in, owning relationships?

Take a look.
Mobile Operators (among others) are advised to sit down first.

Doc speaks:

Blogs dead? Who cares? Ubiquity of Connectivity is what matters

The eighth mass media is not about tools. I care little who says blogging is dead or who claims microblogging is the next big thing.

The eighth mass media is where:
we are the connections and the way the connections are made; beyond silos. It needs tools but it isn't made by them.

It's the direction we're headed in. The sixth and seventh medias (internet and mobile) are helping us on our way.

How we choose to connect, in which silo or with which tools, is less important than that we do connect - and, crucially, as widely and instantly as possible. Blogs are quite good for this. They are considerably less silo'd than your average (what we traditionally think of) social network. Don't write them off just yet.

More importantly Hugh refers us to one of Clay Shirky's more oft-repeated lines (my emphasis):

"Yes, again, it's all about what Clay Shirky said four years ago, in a wonderful interview he did for Gothamist:

"So forget about blogs and bloggers and blogging and focus on this -- the cost and difficulty of publishing absolutely anything, by anyone, into a global medium, just got a whole lot lower. And the effects of that increased pool of potential producers is going to be vast."

Amen to that. We all have cheap, rapid, easy ways of sharing our metadata. That's what publishing has become. Publishing for all. Advertising for all.

We can all share content. Content is the conversation starter, conversation is where ideas turn into action, action is where value is created.

Now we can all share in sharing this. We can all share ourselves.

That is what changes everything.

In some ways the eighth mass media is also the first (as J_Mac pointed out in a comment on the original post).

Alan Moore and Tomi Ahonen's work on Mobile as the 7th mass media lists them thus:
1. Print
2. Recordings
3. Radio
4. Cinema
5. TV
6. Internet
7. Mobile

The eighth is where we are moving towards: We are the eighth mass media. But we were of course always the first, too.

The difference between the pre-mass information age and the post mass broadcast age is speed of transmission and scale of spread both enabled by the ubiquity of connectivity.

We need the sixth and seventh mass medias to enable the eighth.